Tau-leaped Particle Learning

Jarad Niemi, Michael Ludkovski


Development of effective policy interventions to stem disease outbreaks requires knowledge of the current state of affairs, e.g. how many individuals are currently infected, a strain's virulence, etc, as well as our uncertainty of these values. A Bayesian inferential approach provides this information, but at a computational expense. We develop a sequential Bayesian approach based on an epidemiological compartment model and noisy count observations of the transitions between compartments.

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.5210/ojphi.v5i1.4575

Online Journal of Public Health Informatics * ISSN 1947-2579 * http://ojphi.org