Parametric Uncertainty in Intra-Herd Foot-and-Mouth Disease Epidemiological Models

Authors

  • Eric Nicholas Generous Defense Systems Analysis Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.5210/ojphi.v5i1.4498

Abstract

Epidemiological models that simulate the spread of Foot-and-Mouth Disease within a herd are the foundation of decision support tools used by governments to help advise and inform strategy to combat outbreaks. Contact transmission data used to parameterize these models, contrary to assumption, contain a significant amount of variability and uncertainty. The implications of this finding suggest that the resultant model output might not accurately simulate the spread of an outbreak. If this is true, the potential impact due to uncertainty inherent to the decision support tools used by governments might be significant.

Author Biography

Eric Nicholas Generous, Defense Systems Analysis Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory

E. Nicholas Generous is a Graduate Research Assistant in the Defense Systems Analysis Division at Los Alamos National Laboratory. He holds a B.A. in Molecular Biology and M.S. in Biotechnology from the Johns Hopkins University.

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Published

2013-03-23

How to Cite

Generous, E. N. (2013). Parametric Uncertainty in Intra-Herd Foot-and-Mouth Disease Epidemiological Models. Online Journal of Public Health Informatics, 5(1). https://doi.org/10.5210/ojphi.v5i1.4498

Issue

Section

Poster Presentations